- Gas is cheap.
- The job market is strong.
- Consumer debt is down.
- The nation’s weather is cold.
- “Retail sales are expected to top $22 trillion this year, including $1.3 trillion in e-commerce led by China and the U.S.” - eMarketer
- “U.S. Retailers likely to just meet holiday forecasts.” - Reuters
- “Total retail sales tumbled 11 percent to $50.9 billion during the extended Black Friday weekend. “ - National Retail Federation (NRF).
- “Online sales on Thanksgiving were up 14.3 percent, while Black Friday online sales were up 9.5 percent.” - IBM
- “Despite growth, Black Friday has lost its punch.” - Retention Science
- The NRF data above is based upon a consumer survey, not purchasing data.
- The IBM data is from eCommerce “shopping cart” transactions.
- Cold Weather is good for in-store sales - It brings consumers into stores to buy outerwear and accessories,
- Cold weather is bad for in-store retail sales - It keeps consumers at home, where they shop online and have fewer “impulse” purchases.
To paraphrase Andrew Lang;
Retail analysts use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination.”